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Wo ist die Grippe hin?
#1
Where is the flu?

Wo ist die Grippe hin?

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#2
Corona Pandemie hat Grippe fast völlig verdrängt

Vor dem Winter haben sich Stimmen gemehrt, dass Covid-19 und Grippe Erkrankungen die Spitäler und Intensivstationen rasch an die Grenzen ihrer Kapazität bringen werden. Aber in den letzten 9 Monaten ist die Grippe so gut wie überall verschwunden, sobald die ersten Infektionen mit SARS-Cov-2 aufgetreten sind. Es scheint so zu sein, dass sich dieses Virus und die saisonale Grippe nicht gemeinsam verbreiten. Den Schluss legen zumindest die Daten der WHO und einige Studien nahe.
Twitter User Kyle Lamb hat die Datenbanken der WHO und andere Veröffentlichungen durchforstet und dabei einige erstaunliche Entdeckungen gemacht. Am 18. September veröffentlichte das US CDC ein Papier, in dem anerkannt wurde, dass die Grippe im vergangenen Sommer im Wesentlichen von der südlichen Hemisphäre verschwunden war. Bezeichnend für die mediale Stimmung ist, dass diese erstaunlich positive Tatsache in den Nachrichten nicht an erster Stelle vermeldet wurde, genau genommen habe ich darüber überhaupt nichts gelesen.
Die Weltgesundheitsorganisation hat festgestellt, dass „die Influenza-Aktivität im Vergleich zu früheren Saisonen insgesamt auf einem Rekordtief geblieben ist. Trotz fortgesetzter oder sogar verstärkter Tests auf Grippe in einigen Ländern der südlichen Hemisphäre wurden nur sehr wenige Grippe-Erkrankungen gemeldet“, schrieb die WHO in einem Bericht vom 31. August über Daten zur Grippeüberwachung.
Studien über Verschwinden der Grippe
Die Zahlen sind wirklich bemerkenswert. In Australien zum Beispiel gab es im vergangenen August nur 107 im Labor bestätigte Fälle von Influenza, gegenüber 61.000 im August 2019. Die gleiche Dynamik war in Ländern wie Südafrika, Chile und Argentinien zu beobachten – alles Länder, die ihre Grippesaison im europäischen Sommer haben.
@kerpen Data from Chile.
Flu and other resp viruses disappeared last southern winter https://t.co/I4xQJ8YLb0— Robinson Nuñez (@Robinson Nuñez)
Eine kürzlich von australischen Forschern durchgeführte Studie ergab , dass „bis zum Winter 2020 bei westaustralischen Kindern trotz der Wiedereröffnung von Schulen die RSV [Respiratory Syncytial Virus] und die Influenza bis zum Winter 2020 um 98,0% bzw. 99,4% zurückgegangen sind“.
Diese Zahlen sind einfach verblüffend und deuten auf ein starkes immunbiologisches Phänomen hin, das mehr als jede menschliche Intervention als Verursacher auftritt. Es scheint klar zu sein, dass, wenn ein dominantes Atemwegsvirus im Umlauf ist, dieses gegenüber der Grippe und möglicherweise anderen Atemwegsviren überwiegt.
Globaler Rückzug von Grippe laut WHO Daten
Dieses Phänomen, dass das Coronavirus die Grippe auslöscht, ist genauso auf der nördlichen Hemisphäre nachweisbar, aber nur wenige haben es bemerkt.
Lamb hat mit Hlfe des WHO FluNet Datenbank vom Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) alle Influenza Fälle für die Jahre 2019 und 2020 aus allen 18 WHO Beobachtungszonen aggregiert. Davon gehören 14 in die nördliche und 4 in die südliche Hemissphäre.
(....)
In den ersten 8 Wochen der nördlichen Grippesaison war noch alles ziemlich unverändert um ab Woche 10 bereits um 65,38% abzufallen um ab Woche 15 mit einem Minus von 97,61% fast völlig zu verschwinden. Auf der südlichen Halbkugel ein ähnliches Bild, Woche 1-8 minus 12,4%, ab Woche 10 minus 93,67% und ab Woche 15 98,86%.
Anfang des Jahres wurden in vielen Ländern die Zahl der Grippetests im Vergleich zu den Zahlen der vergangenen Jahre deutlich erhöht. Dies war wahrscheinlich auf die Tatsache zurückzuführen, dass im Februar und März nur eine begrenzte Anzahl von COVID-19-Tests zur Verfügung stand und die Krankenhäuser großzügig auf Grippe testen, um andere Erreger auszuschließen und eine bessere Diagnose von COVID-19 zu ermöglichen. Doch trotz der vermehrten Tests sank die Rate der positiven Grippetests auf nahezu Null. Im April bewegte sich die Positivitätsrate für Grippetests zwischen 1/20 und 1/40 der Rate der letzten drei Jahre!
Und Japan mit Grippe trotz Maske
Werfen wir noch einen Blick auf die vergangenen vier Grippesaisonen für Japan, Woche 1-16. Vergleichen wir sie mit dem Jahr 2020, sehen wir wie die Fälle von einer Klippe stürzten als Covid auftauchte. Und das geschah noch bevor die erste Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung überhaupt angedacht wurden...

weiter https://tkp.at/2020/10/17/corona-pandemi...ssion=true
 
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#3
Vergleich 2020 vs. 2010 bis 2018

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Original Quellen:

https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_labo...report/en/
 
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#4
Die Schweiz stellt die Grippe Berichte gleich ganz ein:

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#5
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#6
Eine unglaublich wichtige Frage. Gibt es darauf bereits vernünftige Antwort? Hat sich die jährliche Grippe das Corona-Mäntelchen übergezogen? Wird nur noch auf SARS-CoV-2 getestet?

Für was brauchen wir noch eine Grippe? Die hat ausgedient und der Impfstoff war immer 1-2 Jahre zu spät auf dem Markt.Sowas lässt sich schlecht vermarkten.Hingegen der neue Verkaufsknüller #Covid19, wird schon bestellt bevor er überhaupt entwickelt, geschweige getestet wurde.

(Twitter)
 
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#7
Has Covid killed off the flu? Experts pose the intriguing question as influenza cases nosedive by 98% across the globe
  • Many feared 'twin-demic' of flu, which kills thousands, and Covid-19 this winter 
  • Thirty million people - 20 per cent more than normal - now eligible for the flu jab
  • 'Surveillance' data collected by WHO shows how flu cases plummeted globally
It was feared by many to be the perfect winter storm, a nightmare situation that would push our health service over the edge: the 'twin-demic' of flu, which kills about 10,000 Britons every year, and a second deadly wave of Covid-19.
Such was the concern that the Government rolled out the biggest flu vaccination programme in British history.
Thirty million people – 20 per cent more than normal, and now including all over-50s – are eligible for this year's jab. 
Take up of the vaccine is already the highest it has ever been in the over-65s and young children, according to the latest reports.
There's just one curious problem: flu, it seems, has all but vanished.

The disappearing act began as Covid-19 rolled in towards the end of our flu season in March. And just how swiftly rates have plummeted can be observed in 'surveillance' data collected by the World Health Organisation (WHO). 
Patients aren't routinely tested for flu, even if it's suspected, but a number of 'sentinel' GP surgeries and hospitals do carry out diagnostic screening on those who have symptoms, and this data gives us the most accurate picture of how much flu is in circulation.
And the figures provide a startling insight into what has become a creeping trend across the world.

In the Southern Hemisphere, where the flu season happens during our summer months, the WHO data suggests it never took off at all.
In Australia, just 14 positive flu cases were recorded in April, compared with 367 during the same month in 2019 – a 96 per cent drop. 
By June, usually the peak of its flu season, there were none. In fact, Australia has not reported a positive case to the WHO since July.
In Chile, just 12 cases of flu were detected between April and October. There were nearly 7,000 during the same period in 2019.

And in South Africa, surveillance tests picked up just two cases at the beginning of the season, which quickly dropped to zero over the following month – overall, a 99 per cent drop compared with the previous year.
In the UK, our flu season is only just beginning. But since Covid-19 began spreading in March, just 767 cases have been reported to the WHO compared with nearly 7,000 from March to October last year. 
And while lab-confirmed flu cases last year jumped by ten per cent between September and October, as a new season gets under way this year they've risen by just 0.7 per cent so far.
Of course, this isn't the total number of flu cases. 
We know from Office for National Statistics data that hundreds of people have been dying from suspected flu-related pneumonia every week throughout the year – that, and the predicted tough winter ahead, is why experts agree that vaccination is still vital to those eligible. Some flu seasons begin earlier than others.
But our low flu surveillance figure does indicate the spread of flu in the UK, right now, has yet to pick up pace. 
Other research by Public Health England has confirmed this. Globally, it is estimated that rates of flu may have plunged by 98 per cent compared with the same time last year.
'This is real,' says Dr David Strain, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School. 'There's no doubt that we're seeing far fewer incidences of flu.'
So where has flu gone? And what does it mean for our winter?
There are intriguing theories – some more outlandish than others.
There are those who claim flu cases haven't vanished at all, but are instead being recorded as Covid-19. Sceptics say Covid tests are unable to distinguish between coronavirus and flu, but this is simply untrue.

Dr Elisabetta Groppelli, virologist and lecturer in global health at St George's, University of London, explains: 'Flu and Covid-19 are caused by very distinct viruses, and this is clear to see under a microscope. 
There's no chance of mistaking one for the other – the fragment of viral genetic material from the coronavirus looks like a bit of spaghetti, while the flu genetic material we test for looks like eight pieces of penne pasta.'
Another compelling explanation suggests the presence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19 and has run rampant throughout the world, has somehow 'crowded out' the flu virus.
The theory has gained traction on Twitter, and there is some scientific backing for the phenomenon.
When an individual is infected with one virus, they are less likely to be infected by another during that time due to something called 'viral interference'.

Virus expert Professor James Stewart, at the University of Liverpool, says: 'Immune system cells come in and help destroy the first infection, and if another virus comes along that same response will fight it off.'
Dr Groppelli adds: 'Viruses are parasites. Once they enter a cell, they don't want other viruses to compete with. So the virus already in the body will effectively kick the other parasite out.'
On a population level, it means if enough people have one virus, others will have nowhere to go and cannot spread.
A study by researchers at the US Centre for Disease Control concludes it is at least possible that this has happened in some regions, and that coronavirus could effectively 'muscle out' influenza in the body's respiratory system.
Viral interference may well have been the reason 2009's swine flu pandemic never took hold in the way many feared it would.
Yale University academics recently suggested the high presence of rhinovirus – the common cold – in the autumn of that year may have 'blocked infection' of the deadly H1N1 virus. At the time, the UK Government planned for a worst-case scenario of 65,000 deaths. In the end, 392 died.
The Yale study found human cells already infected with the cold virus were significantly less likely to become infected with H1N1. So could that happen again this year?
Public Health England studied samples taken from about 20,000 people during the first four months of this year, as coronavirus took hold, and found those who had flu were 58 per cent less likely to also have coronavirus.
This may be more to do with behaviour when you have a virus – staying in bed, or not going out – which means you're less likely to come into contact with another virus, Prof James Stewart explains. 
Yet the study also theorised 'possible pathogenic competition' between the two, because co-infection – people with flu and Covid-19 at the same time – was strikingly rare.
A Chinese study on two previous coronavirus outbreaks, SARS and MERS, has also shown the same effect. Infection with another virus, such as flu, protects to some degree against a coronavirus infection.
But what isn't clear, and hasn't been tested, is what happens the other way around. Can a coronavirus infection, with or without symptoms, elbow-out flu? Dr Groppelli says: 'The only thing we can say is that, right now, before winter hits, is it's a bit too early to tell.'
Most scientists agree there was not enough Covid-19 in circulation in March to explain the dramatic drop in flu cases. And the same holds true as we approach winter. 
Random testing suggests that, in May, between five and six per cent of people in the UK had corona antibodies, rising to 17.5 per cent in worst-hit London, according to Public Health England. 
Now cases are rising again, by 90,000 a day, according to the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.
But Dr Ellen Foxman, who authored the Yale viral interference study, says: 'One virus can only disrupt the spread of another if enough people have them.
'When we're talking about common colds, the rates are astronomically high, and many people are asymptomatic. 
'But for Covid, at present we think only 15 to 20 per cent of people in hard-hit places like New York have been exposed. Most places will be a lot lower than that.
'That's not enough for Covid to prevent flu by interference and certainly not enough to account for the huge drops in flu we've seen in the statistics.'
Viral interference, typically, would also not have caused such a sudden drop in flu cases, adds Dr Strain. 
Instead, scientists overwhelmingly agree the decline is far more likely to be linked to interventions – social distancing, hand-washing, lockdowns and school and shop closures. 
'If coronavirus interfered with anything, it was our behaviour,' says Dr Foxman.
Both viruses spread in the same way: through infected droplets. But people with Covid are thought to be more contagious, and for longer, that those with flu.
One measure of this is the much talked about reproduction, or R number – the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average.
Covid-19 has a reproduction number of about three, if no action is taken to stop it spreading. It means one person would be expected to give it to three others.
Some viruses are more contagious, for instance measles, which has an R number of roughly 15. Flu, on the other hand, has an R number of just over one.
The incubation period for flu is also lower. After being infected with flu, it typically causes illness within two days, compared with five days on average for Covid-19. 
That means it's far more likely that individuals will be going about their business while unknowingly infecting others with Covid-19 than they will if they come down with flu.
It means, Dr Strain says, that even small mitigation measures will have a far greater, and speedier, effect on flu transmission.
'All of the studies on face masks and social distancing are based on preventing flu transmission and have shown huge reductions,' he adds. 'So it's no surprise it worked.'
Australian officials claim their low flu numbers can be partly attributed to their vaccination programme, which the Government boosted by 50 per cent, ordering 18 million vaccines rather than its usual 12 million. 
Australia's huge geography – 32 times the size of the UK with people more dispersed – combined with strict Covid lockdown measures also played a role.
(....)
'The total number of coronavirus cases in Australia was around 27,500 in a population of nearly 25 million,' says Dr Strain. 'So the idea Covid is crowding out flu – when rates are low and there's a high degree of compliance to lockdown measures – becomes nonsensical.'
However, there are potentially unintended consequences. As other, milder viruses, such as the flu or common cold, stop circulating as freely, some believe we could have less protection against the more dangerous coronavirus
Dr Foxman says: 'Common colds probably shore up our defences against other viruses. If we completely shut down transmission of these with lockdown measures, and then open things up again, will we see bigger peaks of coronavirus and other viruses?
'I'm strongly in favour of mitigation measures, but it's a big experiment. I'll be watching closely.'
The other question is whether we can actually trust the flu data at all – most officials say global figures are not robust this year as coronavirus surveillance took priority in laboratories. 
Fewer people have also been having appointments for flu-like symptoms during the pandemic, so fewer suspected cases are recorded.
Public Health England confirmed that flu testing has been lower this year. However the body also say that available data does show that overall flu activity is 'low'.
There is also the danger that, in the absence of testing flu cases in this country and elsewhere, flu cases could be mistaken for Covid-19..........

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/artic...d-flu.html
 
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#8
FDP:

Benedikt Brechtken@ben_brechtken10h
Kann mir das jemand mit Ahnung erklären? Ernstgemeinte Frage.

Stefan Homburg@SHomburg· Oct 25
Gute Nachricht: Seit April 2020 ist die Influenza weltweit vollständig verschwunden, anders als je zuvor. Oder - werden die Grippefälle seither auf #COVID19de umgebucht? Und kann das den #lockdown2 rechtfertigen?

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Aber wie können Corona-Zahlen steigen, wenn gleichzeitig die Grippe-Zahlen nicht steigen? Gibt es einen Ansteckungsfilter für Grippeviren, der nur Coronaviren durchlässt?
 
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#9
Cold case
The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020
Efforts to stop covid-19 have had at least one welcome side-effect

EVERY WINTER, from May to October, tens of thousands of Australians and New Zealanders are asked how they feel. More precisely, they are asked by their governments in weekly surveys if they have a cough or a fever. Although 2020 has been a difficult year in many ways for Aussies and Kiwis, it has not necessarily been bad for their physical health. This winter only around 0.4% of people in the two countries said they were suffering from flu-like symptoms, down by four-fifths compared with last year. Other countries in the southern hemisphere have reported similar slowdowns in the spread of influenza.
The cause for this steep decline in infections is clear. Governments all around the world have enacted costly lockdowns to fight the novel coronavirus. In doing so, not only have countries in the southern hemisphere slowed the spread of covid-19, but they also appear inadvertently to have stopped the proliferation of another deadly disease: the flu.
Since 1952 the World Health Organisation (WHO) has tracked influenza in member countries, relying on local partner laboratories to report both the number and types of viruses they detect. In the first two weeks of August, the WHO processed nearly 200,000 influenza tests, and found just 46 were positive. In a typical year, the number would be closer to 3,500.
One might worry that because health-care systems are strained, the declines in reported flu cases reflect reduced testing capacity, rather than a genuine reduction in infections. Fortunately, this is not so. WHO data are readily available in six countries in the southern hemisphere: Australia, Argentina, South Africa, Paraguay, New Zealand and Chile. There the total number of influenza tests has fallen by just 20%, while the share of tests that have come up positive has plummeted to record lows.
Data from Australia tell a remarkable tale. From May to mid-August of 2015-19, an average of 86,000 Australians tested positive for the flu each year, and around 130 died of it. This winter the government has registered only 627 influenza infections and just a single death.
The reduction in flu cases helps explain at least one puzzle in covid-19 data: some countries have seen a smaller increase in overall mortality than their covid-19 deaths would suggest. For instance, Chile has recorded around 9,800 covid-19 deaths from June to August 25th, but an increase of only about 8,800 deaths overall compared with the same period in 2015-19. It is possible that Chile is undercounting how many of its residents have died. But the near elimination of the flu has helped too.
Influenza cases may yet rise in the south both this year and next, since fewer people have developed immunities. Meanwhile, countries in the northern hemisphere should expect fewer flu cases since fewer will be imported from abroad, and most people are social distancing. Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 300,000-650,000 people annually. In a year filled with terrible news, a victory against the flu is a welcome respite. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...on-in-2020
 
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#10
RIP Grippe! Sie ist von uns gegangen! In aller Stille! PS. Nun brauchen wir uns auch nicht mehr gegen die Grippe impfen zu lassen!

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