Zahlen/Statistiken - Analysen, Meinungen

[A.Hauß]

https://www.heise.de/forum/Telepolis/Kom...0071/show/

Wer hier falsch liegt bzgl. Übersterblichkeit... RKI-Daten!

Dadurch ist klar, dass hier viermal mehr Menschen als in den Jahren zuvor gestorben sind, also ein deutlicher Hinweis darauf, dass diejenigen, die weiterhin von Covid-19 als ganz normaler Grippe sprechen und gerne auf EuroMOMO verweisen, wo europaweit etwa in der Woche 23.03. bis 29.03.2020 keine Übersterblichkeit (Exzessmortalität) zu sehen ist, falsch liegen.

Schon die reine Logik besagt, dass in Deutschland bei normal ca. 2.500 Toten täglich die jetzt gemeldete Coronatoten-Zahl von ca.1.100 (aber im Monat) für den Tag gerechnet nur eine Übersterblichkeit von weniger als 40 zu 2.500 bedeuten würde.

Würde. Den bekanntlich wird -so Wieler am 20.3. in der PK - jeder Tote mit Corona als Coronatoter gerechnet.

Aber:

Akute Atemwegserkrankungen (ARE)
Daten aus dem bevölkerungsbasierten Überwachungsinstrument GrippeWeb
Die für die Bevölkerung in Deutschland geschätzte Rate von Personen mit einer neu aufgetretenen akuten
Atemwegserkrankung (ARE, mit Fieber oder ohne Fieber) ist in der 13. KW (23.03. - 29.03.2020) im Vergleich
zur Vorwoche weiter stark gesunken (2,8 %; Vorwoche: 5,2 %). Die Rate der grippeähnlichen Erkrankungen
(ILI, definiert als ARE mit Fieber) ist im Vergleich zur Vorwoche ebenfalls stark gesunken (0,3 %;
Vorwoche: 0,7 %). Durch Nachmeldungen können sich die Werte der Vorwochen zum Teil noch deutlich
verändern. Weitere Informationen und ausführliche Ergebnisse erhalten Sie unter: https://grippeweb.rki.de/

Das lässt vermuten (nein, beweisen kann ich es nicht, aber der Verdacht liegt nahe), dass Corona-Kranke an die Stelle der normalen Grippekranken getreten sind, statistisch.
Nix überkrank, nix übergestorben. Einfach nur wegdefiniert.

Man lese die RKI-Zahlen, man höre genau auf Wieler und Drosten. Sie sichern sich ab für die Zeit nach Corona. Weil ohne die schönen Jobs im Knast hocken zu müssen, erinnert doch zu sehr an die Zwangsquarantänisierten heutzutage.

[Huxley]

COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic
Last updated: April 04, 2020, 10:14 GMT
Case Graphs - Death Graphs - Countries - Death Rate - Incubation - Age - Symptoms - News
Coronavirus Cases:
1,130,544
view by country
Deaths:
60,123
Recovered:
234,069

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[coldwater]

Triage: Gerade war zu hören, daß Triage bedeutet, ein Arzt müsse aussuchen, wer sterben soll.

Zitat:Schlacht von Waterloo Verwundete überlebten ohne Hightech-Medizin
Haben Schwerstverletzte bessere Überlebenschancen, wenn sie unbehandelt bleiben? Wissenschaftler haben die Schlacht von Waterloo analysiert und herausgefunden, dass viele Verwundete ein multiples Organversagen überlebten - ohne die Hilfe moderner Intensivmedizin.
25.11.2004, 14:13 Uhr
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mens...29503.html

Ein Nicht behandeln bedeutet nicht, daß man sterben wird oder sterben muss.

[Huxley]

STANDPUNKTE • Coronavirus: Regierung ignoriert grundlegende Daten

[A.Hauß]

https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-...id=1121472

Diese R-Zahl lag am Mittwoch, als die Merkel-Verbrecher die Verlängerungen beschlossen, auch schon bei 0,9.

Natürlich wissen die das. Das ist keine "Ignoranz".

ES GEHT NICHT UM CORONA - das ist die logische Schlussfolgerung. Es ging und geht um exakt das, was als "Folge" von Covik19 dargestellt wird. Die Manipulation der Daten wird auch in den grafiken deutlich, in denen die Zahl der gensenen einfach nicht berücksichtigt wird. Denn dann wäre ja sichtbar, dass die Kurve schon längst nach unten geht.

[A.Hauß]

"Die Corona-Toten: eine Medienzahl


„Bei uns gilt als Corona-Todesfall jemand, bei dem eine Coronavirus-Infektion nachgewiesen wurde“, so Lothar Wieler, Chef des Robert Koch-Instituts. Damit ist klar: Wer mit dem Virus infiziert ist und stirbt, gilt als „Corona-Toter“ – unabhängig davon, ob das Virus den Tod auch verursacht hat. Wie ist dieser Fakt zu bewerten? Lässt sich überhaupt definitiv sagen, ob jemand am Virus gestorben ist? Wie reagieren die Gesundheitsministerien auf eine Anfrage nach den Corona-Toten? Und: Wie berichten Medien über die Zahl der Todesfälle? Eine Multipolar-Recherche in sechs Bundesländern

MARCUS KLÖCKNER, 13. April 2020, 3 Kommentare"

https://multipolar-magazin.de/artikel/di...medienzahl

[Huxley]

Euromomo:


Pooled mortality estimates from the EuroMOMO network continue to show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coinciding with the current COVID-19 global pandemic. This overall excess mortality is, however, driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

Extra delay in death registration this week: Because of the recent Easter period, there may have been extra delay in death registrations, hence making the interpretation of this week’s mortality estimates a bit more uncertain than usual. Therefore, the map shown below includes deaths until week 14 only. The map for week 15, 2020, is shown on the dedicated map page of the website.
As always, the number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.
European mortality bulletin week 15, 2020





http://www.euromomo.eu/

[Huxley]

Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

Adelina Comas-Herrera (CPEC, LSE), Joseba Zalakain (SIIS), Charles Litwin (CPEC, LSE), Amy T Hsu (Bruyere Research Institute) and Jose-Luis Fernandez-Plotka (CPEC, LSE)
Last updated: 17th April, 2020
Key findings:

• Official data on the numbers of deaths among care home residents linked to COVID-19 are not available in many countries but an increasing number of countries are publishing data
  
• Due to differences in testing availabilities and policies, and to different approaches to recording deaths, international comparisons are difficult
  
• There are three main approaches to measuring deaths in relation to COVID-19: deaths of people who test positive (before or after their death), deaths of people suspected to have COVID-19 (based on symptoms) and excess deaths (comparing total number of deaths with those in the same weeks in previous years).
  
• Data from 3 epidemiological studies in the United States shows that as many as half of people with COVID-19 infections in care homes were asymptomatic (or pre-symptomatic) at the time of testing. New data from Belgium shows that 73% of staff and 69% of residents who tested positive were asymptomatic.
  
• Official data from 7 countries suggests that the share of care home residents whose deaths are linked to COVID-19 is much lower in 2 countries where there have been fewer deaths in total (14% in Australia, where there have been 63 deaths, and 20% in Singapore, where there have been 10 deaths).
  
• In the remaining 5 countries for which we have official data (Belgium, Canada, France, Ireland and Norway), and where the number of total deaths ranges from 136 to 17,167, the % of COVID-related deaths in care homes ranges from 49% to 64%).
  
• Data reported by media as coming from official sources for Portugal and Spain suggests rates of 33% and 53% respectively.
  
• The authors have considered that it is not possible to draw accurate estimates from the data that is currently in public domain in the United Kingdom.
  

A pdf of the report is available hereDownload

1. Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on care home residents and staff: imperfect and limited data, but essential for resource allocation decisions
   

There is growing international evidence that people living in care homes are particularly vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infections and that they are experiencing high rates of mortality as a result. There are also numerous examples from those countries of care homes becoming unviable as not enough staff is available due to sickness and self-isolation measures. This document uses “care homes” for all non-acute residential and nursing facilities that house people with some form of long-term care needs. It is important to note that what is considered a care home is different in most countries.
The impact of COVID-19 on residents and staff has become apparent in two ways: distressing news reports of care homes becoming overwhelmed due to large number of deaths in a short amount of time and too many staff members being either sick or self-isolating, and, increasingly, estimates of deaths of care home residents.
Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes (staff and residents) systematically. This makes it very difficult to estimate the numbers of people with COVID-19 infections and also to count how many care home residents and staff have died as a result of infection. Given this lack of consistent testing, it appears that the best way to estimate the mortality impact of COVID-19 in care homes will be by comparing mortality data from the period of the pandemic to mortality in previous years at the same time of the year to determine the amount of excess mortality. Not all of the excess mortality will be due to COVID-19, but it is increasingly apparent that there may be indirect deaths associated with COVID-19 (perhaps due to people not using health care services for other conditions, or due to difficulties linked to social isolation measures). Another difficulty in comparing data on deaths is that in some countries the data only records the place of death, while others also report deaths in hospital of care home residents. There may also be differences in the extent to which care home residents are transferred to hospital or not.
In the meantime, it is important to ensure that the levels of infections and deaths of care residents and staff are not ignored, and there is a danger that, by not attempting to measure them even if imperfectly, opportunities to inform the decisions that policymakers make, in terms of resource allocations to the care sector, may be missed.
This document, which will be updated and improved as new information and data become available, summarises information from three types of sources: epidemiological studies, official estimates and news reports.

1. Epidemiological studies
   

As of the 11th April, there are 3 epidemiological studies of COVID-19 in care homes (this is based on a rapid search, a systematic review protocol is under development). All 3 studies are from the United States and have been carried by Public Health-Seattle and King County (PHSKC) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The first study was carried out following the identification of a resident with COVID-19 in a skilled nursing facility on the 28th February (1). The study involved the investigation of a cluster of COVID-19-like illness. Data was collected on symptoms, severity, coexisting conditions, travel history and close contacts with known COVID-19 and diagnostic testing (which was conducted according to CDC guidelines). The study contacted at least 100 facilities in the same county and gathered information on clusters of influenza-like illness among residents and staff. Data was also collected on emergency medical transfers to acute care to identify influenza-like illness. All facilities with a high risk of COVID-19 were visited and those with influenza-like illnesses were tested. The facilities were given infection control assessments, training and support.
Testing identified a total of 4 cases of COVID-19 on the 28th February, including the initial resident and a member of staff. On the 18th of March there were 167 persons with COVID-19 that were epidemiologically linked to the first facility. Of these, 101 were residents, 50 were staff and 16 were visitors and, by that date, 34 residents and 1 visitor had died. Another 30 facilities were found to have at least one confirmed COVID-19 case. At least 3 facilities had clear epidemiological links with the first facility where the outbreak was identified. Two of the facilities had staff that also worked in the first facility, and a third facility had received two patient transfers from the first.
The authors acknowledged two key limitations of the study: first, some infections would have been missed as not all residents and staff were interviewed and tested for COVID-19, particularly those who were pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic. Second, there were no complete records of visitors to the first facility, so some infections among visitors are likely to have been missed.
This study identified the following factors as contributors to the spread of COVID-19 in care facilities:
• Staff who worked while symptomatic
• Staff who worked in more than one facility
• Inadequate familiarity with and adherence to Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) guidance
• Challenges to implementing proper infection control practices, including inadequate supplies of PPE and alcohol-based hand sanitizer
• Delayed recognition of access due to low index of suspicion
• Limited availability of testing
• Difficulty identifying persons with COVID-19 on the basis of signs and symptoms alone..................

weiterhttps://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortalit...-evidence/

[Huxley]

(17.04.2020, 19:20)Rundumblick schrieb: Euromomo:


Pooled mortality estimates from the EuroMOMO network continue to show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coinciding with the current COVID-19 global pandemic. This overall excess mortality is, however, driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

Extra delay in death registration this week: Because of the recent Easter period, there may have been extra delay in death registrations, hence making the interpretation of this week’s mortality estimates a bit more uncertain than usual. Therefore, the map shown below includes deaths until week 14 only. The map for week 15, 2020, is shown on the dedicated map page of the website.
As always, the number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.
European mortality bulletin week 15, 2020





http://www.euromomo.eu/

Bemerkenswert auch, dass Euromomo vom Wunderland Germany keine aktuellen Daten geliefert bekommt.

[BSB]

(17.04.2020, 21:56)Rundumblick schrieb:

(17.04.2020, 19:20)Rundumblick schrieb: Euromomo:


Pooled mortality estimates from the EuroMOMO network continue to show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coinciding with the current COVID-19 global pandemic. This overall excess mortality is, however, driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

Extra delay in death registration this week: Because of the recent Easter period, there may have been extra delay in death registrations, hence making the interpretation of this week’s mortality estimates a bit more uncertain than usual. Therefore, the map shown below includes deaths until week 14 only. The map for week 15, 2020, is shown on the dedicated map page of the website.
As always, the number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.
European mortality bulletin week 15, 2020





http://www.euromomo.eu/

Bemerkenswert auch, dass Euromomo vom Wunderland Germany keine aktuellen Daten geliefert bekommt.

Auf jeden Fall zeigen diese synchronen Zähnchen, daß man es hier nicht mit den Toten einer Pandemie zu tun hat, aber ebensowenig mit Luftverschmutzung in der Lombardei oder 5G, sondern damit, daß insuffiziente Gesundheitssysteme durch Panik, Materialengpässe und logistische Probleme (Isolation) zum Kollabieren gebracht wurden, so daß das Leben vieler Menschen, das unter normalen Bedingungen noch einige Zeit verlängert worden wäre, nicht mehr verlängert worden ist. Ich schätze, die Folge wird eine deutliche Untersterblichkeit in den kommenden Wochen sein, außer in den Ländern, die jetzt Untersterblichkeit haben, da werden die Folgeeffekte durch Lockdown-bedingte Nichtbehandlung überwiegen.