• 0 Bewertung(en) - 0 im Durchschnitt
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#Flatten The Curve
Was ist „Flatten(ing) the Curve“? Bedeutung, Coronavirus, Covid-19

[Bild: Flatten-the-Curve-Grafik-deutsch-Bedeutu...s-min2.png]

wie und wo ist die Kapazität des Gesundheitssystem definiert?

wie hat sich das über die Jahre verändert?
Ja, ein paar Zahlen an den Koordinatenachsen wären nützlich.
(22.03.2020, 15:22)BSB schrieb: Ja, ein paar Zahlen an den Koordinatenachsen wären nützlich.

dann muss man auf die Suche gehen. Mich interessiert, was da als Kapazitätsgrenze ausgegeben ist.
Vor allem, nachdem man weiß, wie das System rationalisiert wurde. Wurde eine Notkapazität für Pandemien vergessen?
Heutzutage wird vieles notwendige weg gespart oder an anderer Stelle eingesetzt. Vieles der Wirtschaftlichkeit angepasst
"Help Flatten The Curve" – Pornhub Offers Free Premium Service To Everyone
"With nearly one billion people in lockdown across the world, it's important that we lend a hand (LOL)..."
Sweden’s COVID Approach Is Actual Science. Your Lockdowns Are Superstitious Sacrifice Rituals to Appease Magic Spirits

Herd immunity vs group therapy

The Flat Curve Society
[Bild: 111111.jpg]

Our party wants the best plan for India, a plan that can deal with the worst eventuality. We don’t want plans that are based on day dreams. Therefore, over the past month I have repeatedly recommended a staggered herd immunity approach, based on scientific and economic analysis.
The first worst-case eventuality we need to address is this: that a vaccine is not discovered or discovered after many years. (If it is found earlier, we can rapidly change plans).
Why should we be so pessimistic about the prospect of a vaccine? Some basic facts can help.
Four coronaviruses commonly infect humans: OC43 and 229E (discovered in the 1990s) and HKU1 and NL63 (discovered a decade ago). These are part of a group of 200 odd (and distinct) viruses that cause the “common cold” for which, as we all know, there is no vaccine.
In addition, two other coronaviruses can infect us: SARS and MERS. For these, as well, there is no vaccine despite scientists working on it for years. Instead, we know that “Early efforts to develop a SARS vaccine in animal trials were plagued by a phenomenon known as vaccine-induced enhancement, in which recipients exhibit worse symptoms after being injected”. Basically, a bad vaccine can kill far more of us than the virus itself.
Jane Halton, who chairs the Bill Gates-backed Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation “has warned that there is no guarantee of success”. Australian National University academic Peter Collignon has confirmed to me that: “I don’t think we can assume with any certainty we will get a safe and effective vaccine for all. We haven’t for a number of other infections eg HIV, Hep C, Dengue, RSV despite trying very hard”.
Thus, virtually everyone who knows about coronaviruses knows that a vaccine is a moonshot. Anders Tegnell, who is leading the Swedish fight against this virus is clear that “the vaccine is so far off”.
The second worst-case eventuality we should prepare for is that people will only develop imperfect immunity after recovering from the infection. A number of reports are now showing that people might get re-infected, although that is not too common. But humans do manage to develop a reasonable level of immunity against the four other (common) coronaviruses. If one is infected by one of them, one’s prospects of getting it again are greatly reduced. This suggests that it is reasonable to assume that while a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is close to impossible, herd immunity through infection – although challenging – is still largely viable.
And we must stop dreaming about heat making the virus disappear. It will almost certainly stay alive and kicking in some parts of the planet and spread each year with pretty much the same intensity among unprotected populations as it is currently doing.
This virus is certain to become endemic in the human population like the other four common coronaviruses, and we will need to remain on our guard against it throughout our life (even if we have got it once). Any nation that doesn’t develop strong herd immunity will be brought to its knees every year.
That is why SBP [Swatantra Bharat Paksh] supports Sweden’s well-considered approach, which is a replica of what we have been long recommending.
Sweden isolates its elderly and those with serious pre-conditions. It keeps primary schools open since this virus has virtually no effect on little children, and children are therefore the first to help society acquire herd immunity. Sweden also insists on reasonable social distancing but people are not required to wear masks, which allows the slow and sustained spread of the virus to less vulnerable groups.
Does this mean the Swedish model is perfect? No. Despite its best efforts, there will inevitably be a large number of deaths in the early stages of this approach. And it is almost certain that in the coming days Sweden will need to tighten its restrictions to prevent the overflow of ICUs.
But that’s manageable. Sweden is blessed to have one of the brightest officials in the world at its helm, Anders Tegnell. He has explained to the people of Sweden that there is no easy answer to this problem. They have understood that they have to take responsibility for themselves and their own families. The elderly have to be protected by each family. There is only so much that any government can do.
But once the elderly are safely cocooned, the remaining people are able to operate at a level of normalcy. This normalcy is, of course, quite different from regular normalcy. It includes working from home where possible, and so on. This is exactly what our party recommended on 6 March 2020.
There are strong early signs that Sweden is succeeding in a big way. On 8 April 2020 Tegnell reported that Stockholm may have reached “more of a plateau situation than before”. In particular, “Stockholm is reaching a point where the basic reproduction number of the virus is 1.0, or in other words when one person infects on average only one other person”. That is a supreme achievement, given this virus generally infects over 2.5 persons in the initial stages.
This brilliant approach is going to help Sweden rapidly get over the peak of the pandemic with a growing wall of immune Swedes blocking the virus.

Lesson from Greece: few Corona deaths and infections

The lesson of the Hellenic country is that it acted with great prudence and managed to contain the number of infections and deaths, closing schools first of all.
Compared to the rest of Europe, Greece for the moment seems to have managed to contain the spread of Covid-19.
Because of the cuts to health care imposed by the austerity measures, any other result would have been catastrophic. According to a report from the Guardian dated 2018, hospitals lack staff, materials and equipment. ICU places numbered only 560 last month, although the government has now increased them to 910 and has hired over 4 000 extra doctors and nurses. Also, a quarter of the Greek population is more than 60 years old.
As reported by Nova last week, Greece reported 1 884 cases and 83 deaths since the outbreak began. The Ministry of Health spokesman, Sotiris Tsiodras said that 57 percent is made up of men, while 87 patients were admitted to intensive care, of which 77 percent have at least one previous disease while the average age is 67. Tsiodras said that Greek health authorities have tested 32 528 people nationwide.
The first case of Covid-19 in Greece dates back to February 27, shortly after it was detected Codogno, Italy. But unlike Italy, Greece acted immediately by imposing measures which that at first seemed excessive. The government closed schools and cancelled demonstrations.
Al Jazeera noted that, when Greece canceled the carnival celebrations in late February, many people found the measure out of place. The Greeks, observes the Qatariot newspaper, quickly put aside their revolutionary spirit, and largely listened to the government’s advice to remain in isolation.
The results are there for all to see: the victims are much lower than in Belgium (2 035) or the Netherlands (1 867), which have similar populations, but a much higher gross domestic product (GDP).
“Our schools closed before there was the first death. Most countries closed one or two weeks after they mourned the loss of dozens of people,” said Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in a parliamentary session.
Kreis des Coronawahns. Von der Ignoranz zur Hysterie

#Flatten the curve............hahahahaha!
Aus "FlattenTheCurve" wurde jetzt am

For all the lives we lost, and the ones we can save when we work together to #BreakTheWave of infections. #BreekDeGolf #WellenbrecherJetzt #StoppaSmittan

(08.11.2020, 22:28)Rundumblick schrieb: Aus "FlattenTheCurve" wurde jetzt am

For all the lives we lost, and the ones we can save when we work together to #BreakTheWave of infections. #BreekDeGolf #WellenbrecherJetzt #StoppaSmittan


Am Tag, an dem dieser Strang angelegt wurde, wurde, wie man jetzt weiß, der Höhepunkt der Neuerkrankungswelle erreicht. Einen Tag später trat der Lockdown in Kraft. "Flatten the Curve" bedeutet Herdenimmunität, davon redet jetzt keiner mehr, obwohl wir doch in acht Monaten einen beträchtlichen Teil der Herde immunisiert haben müssen.

Auch diesmal ist es so, daß der Höhepunkt der Erkrankungswelle wahrscheinlich im Oktober liegt, was das RKI durch seine intransparenten Nowcasting-Berechnungen noch so lange wie möglich zu verschleiern sucht.

Gehe zu:

Benutzer, die gerade dieses Thema anschauen: 1 Gast/Gäste